NCEP Synergy Meeting Highlights: May 24,
2010
This meeting was led by David Novak
(HPC) and attended by Chris Caruso Magee (NCO); Becky Cosgrove (NCO); Geoff
Dimego (EMC); Eric Rogers (EMC); Jordan Alpert (EMC); Chad Cary (EMC); Vera
Gerald (EMC); Jamese Sims (EMC); Bill Bua (UCAR/COMET); Stephen Jascourt
(UCAR/COMET); Eugene Petrescu (AR); Andy Dean (SPC); Steve Silberberg (AWC); Ed
Danaher (HPC); Keith Brill (HPC);
Richard Pasch (TPC); Bob Ballard (WFO HFO); Andy Edman (WR); Dave Myrick (WR);
Pete Browning (CR); Bernard Meisner (SR); Dave Radell (ER); and Brian Miretzky
(ER)
1. NCO (Chris
Caruso Magee)
GFS
The
GFS update will occur no earlier than July 13. Issues with post processing and
product generation are being resolved. Once resolved, a 30 day NCO parallel
evaluation will begin. The TIN will be reissued once schedule details emerge. The
previous TIN is found at: http://www.nws.noaa.gov/os/notification/tin10-15gfs.txt
Changes
to the GFS MOS BURF to properly pack opaque sky cover categorical guidance will
occur either concurrent with the GFS upgrade, or shortly after.
Global
Multi-grid Wave Model
Implementation
occured May 11, 2010. Minor bug fixes were implemented May 24.
HWRF
RFCs
have been submitted for changes in the HWRF. These changes include HWRF being
coupled with the POM (Princeton’s Ocean Model).
The HWRF implementation is expected June 1, 2010.
GFDL
Changes
involve modifying the way the model removes the global vortex in its
initialization procedure. Implementation has not yet been scheduled.
Air
Quality
Air Quality products for Alaska are now being run in parallel. Implementation is planned for early Fall.
Hysplit Dust
The hysplit dust model was moved into production on May 18. Output is going to an experimental server in Silver Spring. The output location is expected to be
transitioned to an operational area sometime in late Q4.
For the latest schedule
updates see: http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/changes/
2. NOTES FROM EMC
2a.
Global Climate and Weather Modeling Branch (GCWMB) (Jordan
Alpert)
GFS
Working
with NCO to resolve post-processing and product generation issues associated
with the parallel GFS upgrade.
EMC
has a web page which compares real-time forecasts between the operational GFS
and the parallel GFS is at:
http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/
(selected from "GFS Weather Fcst Maps" on the left panel). Note that
these web comparisons are only available for the 00Z run.
NAEFS
Plans
are continuing to add the Fleet Numerical Meteorology and Oceanography Center
(FNMOC) ensemble to NAEFS. The addition is tentatively planed for Q1 of 2011.
Pacific
Region Guidance
Codes
have been submitted to NCO for the downscaled numerical guidance (DNG) from the
native GFS data for Guam and Hawaii,
however additional code and documentation refinement will be necessary. The DNG
will help support RTMA for Guam. No implementation
date has been scheduled. A 75-day notice will be required for the Guam DNG to
be distributed over the SBN, so SBN dissemination may lag implementation.
Climate
Forecast System
Planning
and testing for a major upgrade to the Climate Forecast System (CFS 2.0) is
ongoing. Initial plans are for a November implementation.
2b.
Mesoscale Modeling Branch (MMB) (Geoff Dimego)
SREF
Select
post-processed variables primarily related to aviation are expected to be added
in Q4FY10.
A upgrade is being planned for FY11 which
replaces the remaining Eta and RSM members with NEMS-NMM-B members. This
upgrade would also increase resolution to ~22-25 km, add a BUFR output, and may
transition to an ensemble perturbation approach. The WRF Development
Testbed Center (DTC) is helping evaluate
different perturbation possibilities. The Eta and RSM models will be
discontinued, pending all dependencies on Eta and RSM models can be removed.
RTMA
Established a
parallel 2.5 km CONUS version, which is being evaluated by ER and WR. RFCs have
been submitted for operational implementation, which is targeted for Q4 of
FY10. This implementation will also update the QC station lists submitted by
the regions.
NAM
The next large
implementation will be transitioning the WRF-NMM to the NMM-B and embedding
this model within the National Environmental Modeling System (NEMS) framework
sometime in FY2011. This transition allows the establishment of 4 km nests over
the CONUS, a 6 km nest over Alaska, and 3 km
nests for Puerto Rico and Hawaii.
An internal EMC parallel has been running for several weeks.
High
Resolution Window Runs
FY10
plans include upgrading the WRF code version and adding a run to cover Guam (which would use GFS initial and boundary conditions).
The
newer WRF versions for both NMM and ARW use a more conservative advection
scheme which has the effect of reducing QPF bias. The run over Guam would replace the current RSM runs
over Guam and Hawaii.
2c.
Marine Modeling and Analysis Branch (Vera Gerald)
Nothing
to report.
3. FEEDBACK FROM MDL/OPERATIONAL
CENTERS/REGIONS
3a.
MDL (No report)
3b.
NCEP Centers and NWS Regions
HPC
– Conducting an in-house QPF experiment focused on operational high-res models
during June. Will evaluate the 4 km EMC parallel run of the NMM-B as part of
the activities.
SR
– All coastal WFOs have installed the SWAN (Simulating Waves Nearshore) local
wave model and are now tuning their model domains. The local SWAN models will
use the global wave watch model as boundary conditions.
Also,
SR is supporting activities associated with the Deep Water Horizon oil spill.
4. The next Synergy Meeting will be
held at 3:00 pm EDT on Monday, June 28, 2010 in room 209, with remote
teleconferencing capability.