EMC Synergy Meeting Highlights July 25, 2005

This meeting was led by Bill Bua and attended by Geoff Dimego, Dave Michaud, John Ward, Larry Burroughs, Stephen Lord, Keith Brill, Mary Hart, and by phone Stephen Jascourt from NWSH.

1. CCS

John Ward reported that there were no major implementations in July on which to report. On day-to-day operations, the “blue” machine has been problematic which adversely affects development, while “white” has been fine. He then discussed new storage and communications upgrades being planned. The new storage has been delivered, but will take at minimum 4-6 weeks to install.

Separately, there was some discussion of the coming TOC hardware upgrade. As a result of the upgrade, there is a moratorium on new forecast products until February 2006. This will affect, among other things, the availability of the proposed National Digital Guidance Database (NDGD). A waiver may be attempted to allow NDGD to be available for evaluation on the web rather than through the TOC.

2. NOTES FROM EMC

2a. Global Modeling Group:

Stephen Lord reported the medium-range ensemble forecast (MREF) system parallel will be ready for implementation, barring critical weather day declaration, at 12 UTC 9 August 2005. The new MREF includes improved rescaling of the initial condition perturbations, tropical cyclone relocation in all ensemble members, and an increase in resolution to T126 through the full 384-hour forecast.

There was nothing new to report on the next parallel version of the GFS.

2b. Mesoscale Modeling Group:

Geoff Dimego reported that work continues on a parallel North American Mesoscale (NAM) model that will serve as the first Mesoscale Modeling Branch version of the WRF, which will use the Gridpoint Statistical Interpolation (GSI) scheme and be non-hydrostatic. The upgrade to WRF version 2 has been somewhat problematic, but it still is expected that once the “bugs” are worked out, the NAM WRF version 2 code will be given to NCO to be run in parallel through the late fall to winter period, with a March 2006 implementation.

The Hi-Res window version of the WRF will not be upgraded from version 1.3 to version until after the March 2006 implementation of the operational NAM WRF.

2c. Global Ensemble Prediction System:

See comments above.

2d. Short Range Ensemble Prediction System:

The SREF is still scheduled to have 6 WRF members added to it by the end of FY 2005 (i.e. September 30). Version 2 of the WRF probably will not be used yet.

A minor implementation bundle is pending. Main changes are making post-processed products consistent between the RSM and the NAM. The RSM domain is also being increased to include Hawaii and Alaska. Further details are in the June 27, 2005 synergy meeting notes.

2d. Marine Modeling and Analysis Branch (MMAB):

Larry Burroughs reported that the new 1/12°-resolution SST analysis is in parallel through August 2005. Parallel results will be reported to Dr. Uccellini for implementation in September 2005.

The Genesis Storm Tracker is now available to the Ocean Prediction Center for viewing, through NAWIPS. In the WW3 model post-processing, a new wave steepness parameter is now being issued.

The HYCOM ocean model is now being run in parallel by NCO. One last piece of code is needed for post-processing. An examination of parallel forecasts by a number of entities in NOAA and the NWS will commence in September 2005.

3. Input to EMC and NCO

No one was available from the remote centers.

4. The next meeting will be held Monday August 29, 2005 at noon in room 209 with remote conference capability.