NCEP
Synergy Meeting Highlights: October 31, 2011
This
meeting was led by Bill Bua (UCAR-COMET), and
attended by Rebecca Cosgrove (NCO), Jordan Alpert (EMC), Yuejian
Zhu (EMC), Sura Saha (EMC),
Geoff DiMego (EMC), Vera Gerald (EMC), Mary Hart
(EMC), Steve Silberberg (AWC), Michael Brennan (NHC), Steve Weiss (SPC), Keith
Brill (HPC), Carven Scott (AR), Andy Edman (WR),
Chris Smallcomb (WR), Brian Miretzky
(ER), Pete Browning (CR), Bernard Meisner (SR), Melissa Kreller (SR), Kathy
Gilbert (MDL) and Daryl Kleist (EMC)
1. NCO (Rebecca Cosgrove)
Implementations in October
2011
The NAM-B was implemented
at 12 UTC 18 October 2011, as was the HYCOM global RTOFS. NAM-B high resolution nests have replaced the NAM downscaled grids for the 60-hour duration of
these forecasts.
Next up in the
implementation queue:
·
1 November 2011: NCEP/Fleet
Numerical Meteorological and Oceanographical Center
(FNMOC) combined wave ensemble, using the NCEP and FNMOC WaveWatch3 models and
perturbed wind forcing.
·
8 November 2011: Hi-Res Window output will be made available on
the Satellite Broadcast Network (SBN).
All grids should work except for Guam, and the Puerto Rico grid will need
a software change in
AWIPS before that data can be properly displayed.
·
Global Ensemble Forecast System: Parallel should be ready to run
by mid- to late-November for a planned mid- to late-February implementation
·
Rapid Refresh (RR, Rapid Update Cycle [RUC] replacement): The Technical
Information Notice (TIN) and implementation schedule is currently being
prepared
For the latest schedule
updates see: http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/changes/
2. NOTES FROM EMC
2a. Global Climate and
Weather Modeling Branch (GCWMB) (Jordan
Alpert, Yuejian Zhu)
Data Assimilation/Hybrid
3-D VAR Ensemble Kalman Filter (3D-VAR/EnKF)
A parallel forecast has
begun which was started at 1 June 2011 and has been run through late July 2011. It will be caught up to real time, the code delivered to NCO, and then be run as a
parallel for evaluation and implementation in Spring 2012. Daryl Kleist’s presentation at the end of the
meeting will cover the 3D_VAR/EnKF; discussion of the
presentation is found at the end of the notes.
2b. Global Ensemble
Prediction System (GEFS)
See notes under NCO for
implementation schedule, and previous notes for planned configuration.
2c. Mesoscale Modeling
Branch (MMB) (Geoff DiMego)
NAM
The NMM-B was implemented
as noted by NCO.
Rapid Refresh (RR) Replacement of RUC
Rapid Refresh (RR): If all
were to go perfectly, implementation of the new RR would take place 12 January
2012. Additionally, the first North
American Rapid Refresh Ensemble (NARRE) based on time-lagged forecasts of the
RR will be provided. While it will not
be available on AWIPS, there will be ftp access to the data.
More information and
results can be found here (http://www2.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/impDoc.html) under "Implementation
Briefing" in last column of the NAM 3.0 row; and under the EMC home page (http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/) under "NAM
Upgrade" on the right, click "Description of Changes".
Both the NAM NMM-B and RR will have an
additional upgrade late in the year, but no specific changes have been
identified; stay tuned.
Finally, Geoff DiMego will send out an e-mail about where to obtain NMM-B
Fire Weather inner nest graphics (and to find out what domain was run in the
nest) to the field.
RTMA Upgrade
A upgrade hopefully will be
able to be implemented in Spring 2012. Below repeats the details in previous
synergy meeting notes:
•
Expanded domain to cover the Canadian portion of the NWRFC area
•
~3 km resolution for mainland Alaska and 1.5 km for Juneau area
•
GSI/2D Var improvements for CONUS domain
(to update to the same method as for Guam & Hawaii)
•
Improved winds over lakes and oceans.
SREF
The real-time parallel for
the next implementation of the SREF is nearing completion. It was thought that
because of computer resource limitations, a choice has had to be made to
balance higher resolution with physics diversity. With the help of IBM staff,
however, it appears that it will be possible to implement a SREF with
horizontal grid spacing of 16-17 km, essentially half the grid spacing used
now. Other changes will include
•
Elimination of Eta and RSM
•
Addition of the NMMB
•
More diverse physical parameterizations
•
An initial condition perturbation strategy using a hybrid Breeding
and Ensemble Transform method, and analyses from GDAS, NDAS, and Rapid Refresh
•
Post-processing enhancements
2d. Marine Modeling and
Analysis Branch (MMAB) (Vera Gerald)
Global Hybrid Coordinate
Ocean Model (HYCOM/RTOFS)
The Global RTOFS was
implemented into operation on October 25, 2011.
RTGSST high resolution
Mention was made of the
failure of the AMSR-E; this failure will affect the 0.25°x0.25° Optimal
Interpolation (OI) SST analysis, so that only visible and IR data are
available. In areas where cloudiness is an issue, like over the Gulf Stream and
Great Lakes during the cold season, there will be spells without observations. This will affect the quality of the OI SST
analysis. Since AMSR-E is likely “deceased” there will be no such data for the
foreseeable future.
Wave models
The global NCEP/FNMOC wave
ensemble model is scheduled for implementation on
November 1, 2011. This
combines the Navy and NCEP Wave Watch 3 ensemble forecast systems.
Spectral output resolution
increase for the multi-scale wave model is still on schedule for FY12Q1. A
parallel is expected to begin on 22 November 2011. RFC’s have been submitted
To set up “dev” parallel
runs; making it easier for operational implementation.
The related TIN can be found at:
http://www.nws.noaa.gov/os/notification/tin11-10wave.htm
In Q2FY12, implementations
will be performed that will make the wave model physics among all versions run
at NCEP consistent with each other.
3. NATIONAL OCEAN SERVICE
No report.
4. FEEDBACK FROM MDL/OPERATIONAL CENTERS/REGIONS
4a. MDL
No report.
4b. NCEP Centers and NWS Regions
HPC,
NHC, SPC, AWC – Present, nothing to report.
OPC – No
report.
Central Region – Has a
cool moist near-surface GFS problem that they have report to EMC pending.
Eastern
Region, Alaska Region, Southern Region, Western Region – Present, nothing to
report.
Pacific
Region – No report.
5. NOTE: The annual NCEP model review
dates have been set for 6-8 December 2011.
Formal review will be on 6-7 December, with the morning of 8 December
set aside for more informal discussions.
6. Daryl Kleist, EMC/Data Assimilation
Team presented on the current configuration and testing of the Hybrid
3DVAR-Ensemble Kalman Filter data assimilation system (EnKF).
EnKF differs from standard 3DVAR in that an ensemble
of analyses and forecasts are used to create flow dependent first guess error
covariance (i.e, shape and size of error “pattern”).
This is rather than the standard fixed error covariance determined from
all previous first guess errors, regardless of flow regime. What makes
the data assimilation “hybrid” is the use of relative weighting to linearly
combine the EnKF and 3DVAR covariances.
This is necessary to reduce the sampling error from the EnKF
(80 members out of a huge number of degrees of freedom!) and to increase the
effective resolution of the error structure (EnKF is
at coarse resolution, while 3DVAR is at the resolution of the operational GFS).
Daryl then
showed examples indicating improvement in the GFS at all lead times to 7 days
and gave information on how to follow progress with development of the
real-time parallel. This included a verification URL. Forecast graphics will be made available when
the real-time parallel is running if not before.
Daryl’s
presentation will be made available in a separate e-mail to the Synergy group.
7. Given
the upcoming NCEP Model Suite Review December 6-8, the next scheduled Synergy
Meeting will be deferred until Monday,
January 30, 2012.