Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
400 AM EDT Sat Apr 27 2024

Valid 00Z Sun Apr 28 2024 - 00Z Sun May 05 2024

Upper and surface lows are located to the northwest of Hawaii and
are forecast to track slowly eastward this weekend and early next
week. In response to these features, winds are likely to veer a
bit and may become east-southeast, though staying weak enough to
allow for a hybrid trade and land/sea breeze pattern over the next
few days. Some increased moisture is in place and will likely hold
through Saturday, allowing for increasing shower coverage directed
by the winds. Somewhat drier conditions may come in early next
week. What is left of the weakening trough may move across Hawaii
around Tuesday.

By the later part of next week, it is most likely that surface
high pressure should move north of the state and promote
strengthening easterly trades. Some notable model differences
start to arise late week though. The ECMWF is showing a closed
upper low setting up west of the state drawing significant
moisture into the northwestern islands, unlike other guidance.
This type of pattern seems unlikely as the ECMWF is deeper than
basically all ensemble members from multiple model suites with
this feature. So this will continue to be monitored but prefer a
solution away from the ECMWF at this time.


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