Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
358 AM EDT Wed May 08 2024

Valid 12Z Wed May 08 2024 - 12Z Fri May 10 2024

...There is a Moderate Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of the
Middle Mississippi Valley and Ohio/Tennessee Valleys on Wednesday and over
parts of the Southern Plains on Thursday...

...There is a Moderate Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of the
Ohio/Tennessee Valleys on Wednesday and a Slight Risk of excessive
rainfall over parts of the Southern Plains/Lower Mississippi Valley on
Thursday...

...Heavy snow over the higher elevations of the Northern Rockies on
Wednesday...

A front extending from the Lower Great Lakes on Wednesday will move
eastward off the Northeast Coast overnight Wednesday. In addition, a wave
of low pressure over parts of the Central/Southern Plains will move
eastward to the Ohio Valley by Thursday, and then the northern half of the
boundary will move off the Mid-Atlantic Coast by Friday morning.
Furthermore, a part of the boundary lingers over parts of the Southeast
and Central Gulf Coast also on Friday.

As the wave advances to the Middle Mississippi Valley on Wednesday, it
will bring showers and severe thunderstorms, mainly over parts of southern
Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and northwestern Tennessee.
The SPC has issued an Enhanced Risk (level 3/5) of severe thunderstorms
over parts of the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys and Middle Mississippi Valley
through Thursday morning.  The potential hazards associated with these
thunderstorms are frequent lightning, severe thunderstorm wind gusts,
hail, and a few tornadoes. There will be the added threat of EF2 to EF5
tornadoes over parts of the Middle Mississippi Valley and the
Ohio/Tennessee Valleys. Moreover, there will be an additional threat of
hail two inches or greater and severe thunderstorm wind gusts of 65 knots
over parts of the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys, Middle/Lower Mississippi Valley,
and Southern Plains.

Furthermore, the showers and thunderstorms will produce heavy rain over
north-central Tennessee and northwestern Kentucky. Therefore, the WPC has
issued a Moderate Risk (level 3/4) of excessive rainfall over parts of the
Ohio/Tennessee Valleys through Thursday morning.  The associated heavy
rain will create numerous areas of flash flooding. Furthermore, many
streams may flood, potentially affecting larger rivers. Additionally,
showers and thunderstorms will develop over parts of the Northeast,
Northern Plains, and Upper/Middle Mississippi Valley on Wednesday.

On Thursday, the threat of severe thunderstorms continues from the
Mid-Atlantic to the Southeast and westward to the Southern Plains. The
threat of severe thunderstorms will be the highest over parts of eastern
Texas. Therefore, the SPC has issued an Enhanced Risk (level 3/5) of
severe thunderstorms over parts of the Southern Plains from Thursday
through Friday morning.  The hazards associated with these thunderstorms
are frequent lightning, severe thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a few
tornadoes. Moreover, there will be an increased threat of two inches of
hail over eastern Texas. 

Further, the showers and thunderstorms will cause heavy rain to develop
over parts of eastern Texas, northern Louisiana, and central Mississippi
Valley. Therefore, the WPC has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of
excessive rainfall over the Southern Plains/Lower Mississippi Valley from
Thursday into Friday morning.  The associated heavy rain will create
mainly localized areas of flash flooding, with urban areas, roads, small
streams, and low-lying areas the most vulnerable. Additionally, showers
and thunderstorms will develop over parts of the Central Plains/Middle
Mississippi Valley on Thursday. Moreover, moderate to heavy rain will also
develop over parts of the Northeast, Mid-Atlantic, and Southeast, with a
secondary max over the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley.

Meanwhile, upper-level energy over the Northern Rockies will produce rain
and higher-elevation snow over parts of the Northern/Central Rockies from
Wednesday to Friday. On Wednesday, the system will produce heavy snow over
parts of the Northern Rockies.


Ziegenfelder


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php