Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
344 PM EDT Tue May 07 2024

Valid 00Z Wed May 08 2024 - 00Z Fri May 10 2024

...Severe thunderstorm and flash flood threat forecast across much of the
Midwest, Tennessee and Lower Mississippi valleys, as well as into parts of
the Southern Plains over the next few days...

...Heavy snow to impact the Northern Rockies with well below average
temperatures throughout much of the Rockies and Intermountain West...

...Triple digit and potentially record-breaking heat over southern Texas
on Wednesday and Thursday...

A mature and vertically stacked low pressure system over the Northern
Plains, along with its attached frontal boundaries, are expected to be the
driving force behind much of the impactful weather to affect the Lower 48
over the next few days. This low is expected to begin weakening tonight
and slide eastward into the Ohio Valley by Thursday before approaching the
Mid-Atlantic by early Friday. As it eventually makes the trek eastward,
several chances for severe weather and heavy rain are possible from the
Midwest and Ohio Valley to the Southern Plains, Lower Mississippi and
Tennessee valleys. The threat this evening starts in the Midwest,
specifically over Indiana, western and central Ohio, and northern
Kentucky. A few storms in this region could produce large to very large
hail, damaging wind gusts, and a few (some strong) tornadoes.
Additionally, isolated flash flooding is possible from downpours
associated with the strong thunderstorms. By Wednesday, the severe weather
and heavy rain threat is expected to shift southward along a gradually
lifting warm front extending from the mid-Mississippi to the Ohio Valley.
The Storm Prediction Center has issued a rather expansive Enhanced Risk
(level 3/5) from northeast Texas to far western Virginia, which includes
much of the lower Ohio Valley, Tennessee Valley, and middle to lower
Mississippi Valley. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms appear likely in
this region, with all modes of severe weather possible. The greatest flash
flooding threat also overlaps with the risk of severe thunderstorms,
centered over Kentucky and Tennessee as well sections of neighboring
states. Residents and visitors are advised to have multiple ways of
receiving warnings and never drive across flooded roadways. As the cold
front shifts further south on Thursday the active weather will reposition
to the Southeast and Gulf Coast States, where additional rounds of
scattered severe thunderstorms and flash flooding are possible.

On the northwest and colder side of this system, winter-like weather and
gusty winds are possible across the Northern Rockies and northern High
Plains through Wednesday. Over a foot of snow is forecast across the
elevated terrain of western Montana and Wyoming as strong moisture flux
and favorable upslope flow interacts with anomalously cold air aloft to
produce snow. Meanwhile, strong winds with gusts up to 65 mph on the
western side of the low throughout the northern High Plains are expected
through tonight, which has prompted High Wind Warnings and Wind Advisories
to stretch from northern Montana to South Dakota. Below average
temperatures also wrap around the western side of the system underneath
scattered clouds and northerly flow. Highs are forecast to remain 10 to 20
degrees below average on Wednesday until a return to near average
temperatures (outside of the Rockies) on Thursday.

Conversely, above average warmth is expected across the Southern Plains
and much of the eastern U.S., besides a cloudy New England. Highs into the
80s and low 90s will be widespread on Wednesday, with a few scattered
record highs possible. For South Texas, afternoon temperatures are
anticipated to soar into the triple digits, which could pose a danger for
individuals with health conditions or people spending time outdoors for
long stretches. Heat Advisories have been issued for this region.

Snell


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php